Thursday, May 25, 2017

Bitcoin and alt coin prediction

Since it was discovered that those in a prominent position against Segwit were using the ASIC cheat, and because of the SEC review of its decision, some faith has returned to BTC. Up until now the Alts have kept pace, even though they are ~3 to ~5 times the 3 month value in terms of BTC. The current rise is due to restored faith, but now we still have a market cap in Alt coins that is greater than BTC, and everyone is looking at something like at least a 5x 1 year return in their alt coin in terms of BTC. Historically this has caused a hard pause in BTC (in terms fo dollars). So you might think $2700 now is the limit (it was trading $500 most of last year). But look at the 1 yr return big alt coins have in terms of dollars, something like 25x. This changes lives and even extreme investors like the alt group are likely to exit. But alt investors will not go back to dollars and have no expectation $2700 is the long term limit. I lightly predict they will go back to BTC for safety and stability until their alt coin is back to something like the 3-month BTC ratio. I would not bet on a hard BTC top until ETH is at least 1/3 its current BTC ratio. Maybe at 1/3 I'll get back into ETH and I'm waiting for ZEC to return to 1/2 the current ratio. Finally after buying ZEC for the first time at $33 and selling at $237 I've broke even from the ZP and cpu-mining disasters. The worst was ZP because I used BTC without replacing it.

I'll sell some BTC for alt coins when it reaches $5000 (if they do not keep pace with it like I am predicting) or after they crash a lot faster than BTC.

It seems like alt coins have added an enormous amount of stability to BTC. This is the first doubling it's had in less than 6 months in the past 2 years. It dropped a little more than 30% only once (very recent) in the past 2 years.

My BTC sell point for dollars over the next 3 months is $10,000 per BTC. That is the short-term "crazy" point, unless there is some wider-population driver I'm not aware of. But I can't argue against anyone selling now at $2750 and it's what I would recommend to any friend who likes to play it safe and wise.

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